Betfair Hurdle: Jamie Lynch with the lowdown on every runner in Newbury feature on Super Saturday

At The Races Senior Form Analyst Jamie Lynch gives us the lowdown on every runner in an excellent edition of Britain’s richest handicap hurdle at Newbury.

Always one of the most important and influential handicap hurdles each year, and you have to go all the way back to 2005 for the last time there was this many runners in the Betfair Hurdle, live on Sky Sports Racing at 3.15pm on Super Saturday at Newbury.

The standard at the top end isn’t quite so high as usual – Luccia is off 140 when the average rating of the top-weight in the five prior years was 149 – but the field is full to brimming with high-rollers and higher-hop improvers. Let’s look at all the contenders in an excellent edition of the Betfair Hurdle, live on Sky Sports Racing on Super Saturday at Newbury.

Watch the Betfair Hurdle from Newbury live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 519) on Saturday 10th February.

Luccia

Jockey: David Bass | Trainer: N J Henderson

In the right place at the right time when making all in the companion handicap to this at Ascot, a performance easier explained than reproduced in the face of a stiffer test on softer ground in a bigger field, and the 4lb rise burdens her with top-weight, needing almost to be Grade One class to pull that off.

Spirit D’Aunou

Caoilin Quinn (3) | G L Moore

Gary Moore has an exceptional record in the Betfair Hurdle considering its competitiveness. Two of his successful trio were five-year-olds, as is Spirit D’Aunou who, since his debut, has improved and won every start bar his rusty reappearance. Up a hefty 10lb for Sandown when last seen in early-December, though the first two were clear of Punta Del Este (wide-margin winner next time) and the time was five seconds faster than the rearranged Fighting Fifth. His trainer and trajectory automatically put him on the short-list, though it’s slightly odd to see him quite so far up the racecard with more weight than all bar Luccia.

Faivoir

Miss Heidi Palin (7) | D Skelton

Pulled up in this last year prior to an improbable turnaround to win the County Hurdle at 33-1. Has shown the old spark only once this season and hard to treat him as a Langer Dan type given his age and stage of career.

Knickerbockerglory

Liam Harrison | D Skelton

The critical point is that if he came up short in the Greatwood (seventh) under a 5lb penalty how is he going to pack more of a punch here with 2lb more? He has a backbone of strong form – beating Altobelli at Ascot on his reappearance and beaten only by Iceo in last year’s Imperial Cup – but the handicapper is in charge now and Knickerbockerglory won’t get his own way in front in a field like this.

Lookaway

Jack Quinlan | N B King

Dropping back to 2m will be more a help than a hindrance and Aucunrisque last year reminded that front-runners can win the Betfair. Not many, if any, will be able to catch him.

Under Control

Jonjo O’Neill Jr. | N J Henderson

Bouncebackability is her byword and she beat Iberico Lord off levels at the end of last year and course-corrected once again last time when splitting a couple of Grade One-calibre Mullins mares at Doncaster, which the handicapper has rated marginally higher than the mark she runs off here, while it could be higher still in theory. Though Nico de Boinville is on Iberico Lord, you get the impression she’s coming here at precisely the right time.

Tellherthename

H Cobden | Ben Pauling

He’s a freewheeler and front-running has served him well so far but that’s easier said than done in a fierce field such as this for his first foray into handicaps, though entries in the Supreme and Baring Bingham speak of his homework for a trainer with a strong squad of novices.

Brentford Hope

Paul O’Brien | Harry Derham

He was rated 107 on the Flat, though even that was something of an anti-climax after the way he started, but his reinvention under Harry Derham has been progressive and productive, including a 16-length romp over course and distance in November. The question is did the Gerry Feilden – when third to Hansard and Bad – represent the end of his ratings road or a bump in it? A review would suggest the former, for he had every chance, but the trainer, the time off and the talent flashed on the Flat all point to a bigger performance, and a race like this should in theory be right up his strong-travelling street.

Iberico Lord

N de Boinville | N J Henderson

The fact he was favourite for Ascot’s Betfair Exchange Trophy off this mark probably says more than his finishing position (of seventh) given the vastly different dimensions compared to the Greatwood which he won in a time of 4:06.2, over 22 seconds slower than the speedway at Ascot that didn’t get near the bottom of him, in contrast to stablemate Luccia who had been seven lengths behind him at Cheltenham. While perhaps not pressing quite the same buttons as the heavy-ground Greatwood did, Newbury will be more welcoming to him than Ascot proved to be, and, after just seven starts, his peak is still to come, if there’s pace to come off.

Ocastle Des Mottes

D E Mullins | W P Mullins

The mystery box, after transfer from France where he had just seven starts, but there are dots to join to demystify him in a positive perspective, a mark of 133 leaning towards lenient on his handicap wins last year, beating subsequent Grade One-winning chaser Amy Du Kiff at Compiegne, and then there’s the waiting game played by his master trainer, who has so much to measure against and has waited until Britain’s richest handicap hurdle to unleash him; in Britain rather than Ireland where his handicap mark is 139. That’s no coincidence.

The negative note, besides his price, for which there’s naturally a high premium, is that his wins have come over 2¼m on testing ground in times around 30 seconds longer in the completion than the Betfair Hurdle will be, therefore pushing new pressure points.

Doddiethegreat

James Bowen | N J Henderson

Plenty of positives with him, but there’s a niggle as to whether his jumping is slick enough for a Betfair Hurdle, plus testing ground is a complete unknown, having kept to good/good to soft so far, by design or not.

Aurigny Mill

Alan Johns | V R A Dartnall

Others might be younger or sexier but few if any of the 24-strong field are in the groove so much as he is, winning basically as he liked at Wincanton and Kempton, latterly nearly four seconds quicker than Sir Gino on the same card. Those were good test runs, being well-run races in the mud, clearly in his element, looking the type who’ll be even better in a better race, as Newbury undoubtedly is. Hawadeth was fourth at 40-1 in the 2005 renewal (then the Totesport Trophy) for Victor Dartnall; this fella might match that and more.

Kamsinas

Jack Hogan (3) | F O’Brien

Making his handicap debut, but has hidden nothing, keeping top novice company, winning a Grade Two at Haydock before his limits were exposed by the Grade One Formby at Aintree, faltering on the softest ground he’s faced. This is no easier, and the ground might be no drier by Saturday, either.

Altobelli

J J Burke | Harry Fry

Setting his stall out to be a fixture in these premier handicaps for years to come based on his pair of placings so far, both at Ascot in races that have tested speed, when his development as a novice was built rather more on stamina: he won on heavy at Ffos Las and over almost two and a half miles at Carlisle. Still tethered by some immaturity in the finish last time, when third to Luccia, there’s an extra edge to be put on him yet, though this isn’t any easier an environment for him expressing it.

L’Eau Du Sud

Harry Skelton | D Skelton

Listed winner in France but the handicapper’s assessment has been accurate, enabling third in two well-contested handicaps last season. Had a wind operation prior to stopping quickly on his return in the Greatwood, and absent a further three months since, though clearly still some faith in him to be turning up here with Harry riding, nonetheless a hard horse to back with cash for now.

Go Dante

S Bowen | Olly Murphy

Connections have resisted chasing with him, vindicated to some extent by the fact he ran the race of his life last time, rallying to defeat Doddiethegreat at Cheltenham. Still asking a lot of him to defy a career-high mark at the age of eight in this better handicap featuring such a high quota of improvers.

Norman Fletcher

Sam Twiston-Davies | N A Twiston-Davies

Has laid it all out there so far, therefore hard to believe there’s much if anything up his sleeve for his handicap debut. The Twiston-Davies novices to have recently won the Betfair – Ballyandy and Al Dancer – were both much more accomplished than him.

Jilaijone

Jack Tudor | D Pipe

Career strike-rate of one (juvenile) win is misrepresentative as he has regularly knocked on the door in handicaps, but it’s off-putting that he’s coming in off his worst run (pulled up in the mud at Sandown) and he’s clearly vulnerable to improvers, of which there are many.

Our Champ

Freddie Gordon (5) | C Gordon

Aucunrisque’s all-the-way win last year for Chris Gordon is the paradigm for Our Champ but his spike upon joining the yard has maxed out since his mark has gone up to the mid-120s. Tongue tied now having undergone breathing surgery since a remote third to Aurigny Mill at Kempton.

Moveit Like Minnie

Finn Lambert (5) | N A Twiston-Davies

Plenty of miles on the clock but still pushing upwards and showed he belongs at this level now by his fourth to Luccia at Ascot, but benefited from much the same ride as the winner, and this is bigger and better still, probably beyond him.

Alvaniy

Bryony Frost | W P Mullins

Trained by Willie Mullins, but the negatives outweigh that one positive considering his performances when twice coming to Britain in the autumn, nothing in them to say he’s up to this even if dropping in trip helps.

Yorksea

N F Houlihan | G L Moore

Lower in the handicap than when fourth in this last year but has voted with his feet the last twice and refused to race.

Ito Ditto

Sean Houlihan | Miss Martin

Likeable front-runner but the Chepstow novice he won on a wet Welsh National day rather fell apart around him and the upshot is he’s 15lb higher than when edged out in an Exeter handicap the time before. Biting off more than he can chew in all probability but his ability and attitude will propel him prominent for a long way.

Donnacha

James Davies | N J Hawke

Career is one of mild momentum, exactly what you want in a handicapper, and he was back to winning ways at Warwick last time after acquitting himself very well not once but twice at Cheltenham. Liable to be outclassed at this level but he’ll finish in the first half of the field.

Onlyamatteroftime

(Reserve)

W P Mullins | Brian Hayes

One of the rare Mullins inmates who’s not doing what he’s supposed to, running out (not for the first time) when favourite for the Greatwood, then lacking something again when an unthreatening sixth behind Luccia and others at Ascot, when just 4-1. The reality isn’t matching the marketing myth.

Jamie Lynch’s verdict

What a race. Handicap hurdles don’t get much better than this and there are so many ways to turn, from the handicap anomaly of Ocastle Des Mottes to the Grade 1 novice form brought by Lookaway and the been-there-done-that t-shirt worn by Iberico Lord from the Greatwood.

However, the way that AURIGNY MILL has won his last two races marks him out as both a rapid improver and one really well suited by the demands of a race like this, making him the value play for me.