Breeders’ Cup: Matt Chapman assesses every European runner at the Santa Anita two-day meeting | Racing News

Sky Sports Racing’s Matt Chapman has headed stateside for all the Breeders’ Cup action and gives us his views on every European runner lining up at Santa Anita.

Here we go again! Yes, the Breeders’ Cup, the meeting that truly crowns champions, gets under way at Santa Anita on Friday before the climax that is the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday.

I say that, but a few have fallen away from the Classic this time so the Breeders’ Cup Turf and Breeders’ Cup Fillies’ & Mares’ Turf really have the chance to take centre stage.

As always, there is a strong European challenge, although lessened by the defections of leading Dirt Mile hope Algiers and Turf Sprint-bound Bradsell. I’m gutted the former is not here.

Still, we have Classic winners in Auguste Rodin and Mawj to go to war with, plus many other stars, so let’s have a look at the raiding party.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

BIG EVS (Drawn 4) – Mick Appleby

An exciting sprinter back home who has looked decent all season and showed us he was good with blinding pace in the Listed Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot. Also banged in the Molecomb at Goodwood and, after flopping against older horses in the Group 1 Nunthorpe, was back in form at Doncaster in the Flying Childers. Goes on any ground and has a fine draw. If he gets away has to make his presence felt.

CHERRY BLOSSOM (8) – Aidan O’Brien

Not good enough on paper even though a fair fourth last time in the Group 1 Cheveley Park at Newmarket. That said, if they go really hard here, which they might, she will be staying on better than most, so I give her an each-way squeak.

GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS (5) – Jessica Harrington

Fairly useful performer who was last seen when a sound fourth behind Vandeek in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket. Also a decent third behind Bucanero Fuerte in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh. The worry is that in both those races he dwelt at the start, and if you do that here it’s very hard. If he gets away on terms he could easily play a part.

TIGER BELLE (3) – Ado McGuinness

In great form after two wins at Naas and in a Group 3 at Longchamp. Showed good pace that day and is improving all the time. Worry her decent form has come with some juice. The ground might be a bit quick here.

STARLUST (6) – Ralph Beckett

Been a very busy and useful colt for his connections. Was supplemented into the Group 1 Middle Park at Newmarket last time and wasn’t disgraced in fifth. However, will have to do much more here.

VALIANT FORCE (10) – Adrian Murray

Draw is a real worry. Landed the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot but that form has not worked out at all. Ground will be ideal but hard to see it happening from this berth.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

CONTENT (5) – Aidan O’Brien

Has run six times and improved on latest outing to land a Group 3 at the Curragh at a big price. Has a decent enough draw but would be a surprise winner on European form even though he’s trained by a genius.

PORTA FORTUNA (5) – Donnacha O’Brien

Landed the Group 3 Albany at Royal Ascot but showed her best form last time when taking the Group 1 Cheveley Park at Newmarket when up with the pace and keeping on well. Class-wise, she is well up to this but has never raced beyond 7f and only did that once when defeated in the Moyglare. That said, she kept on well enough that day to suggest she has a chance of getting the trip. A big player.

CARLA’S WAY (9) – Simon & Ed Crisford

Never raced beyond 7f. Best effort came when last seen, landing the Group 2 Rockfel at Newmarket and keeping on well enough to score clearly. That suggested this distance should be within her grasp and she’s clearly talented. Porta Fortuna has form a little stronger.

LES PAVOTS (14) – Francis-Henri Graffard

Proven stayer and an interesting contender although has never faced ground this fast. Was a fine third behind talented Opera Singer in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp last month and has more stamina than most in this field. Will finish strongly but the draw is very tough. An each-way player though for sure.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

CUBAN THUNDER (7) – Adrian Murray

Not disgraced at a big price in a Listed race at Dundalk when last seen but was only rated 86 then and was sent off at 66-1. Needs a miracle here.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

RIVER TIBER (2) – Aidan O’Brien

Has never raced beyond 6f but brings in European class on turf from a good draw. Has been in Group 1 company for his last two runs, including when third behind Vandeek in the Morny at Deauville and when finishing in the same position to his old rival in the Middle Park. The son of Wootton Bassett kept on well that day suggesting he might easily get a mile here. I suspect he has a huge chance.

MOUNTAIN BEAR (12) – Aidan O’Brien

Hard to fancy despite a Listed win at Dundalk in early October. Will stay and has plenty of experience but the mixture of a high draw and lack of class means he’s easy to oppose.

UNQUESTIONABLE (8) – Aidan O’Brien

Draw makes things tricky but there is no question, pardon the pun, the second to Rosallion in the Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere was a top-class effort. That was the longest trip he has been over but he kept on well so the mile should be no issue. Can be keen so needs to settle but has plenty of experience and can’t be ignored. Ryan Moore favours River Tiber, though.

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

WARM HEART (2) – Aidan O’Brien

Stamina is her strong suit and she’s improved massively recently, taking the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks and the Group 1 Vermeille at Longchamp. Goes on any ground and stays super strong so she’s going to be bang in the mix from a fine draw. The one to beat even though she might prefer another two furlongs.

WITH THE MOONLIGHT (3) – Charlie Appleby

Not good enough on European form but she has valuable North American experience having been to Keeneland and Woodbine this term including when second in the EP Taylor. Will need to do more here but the trip is ideal.

INSPIRAL (6) – John & Thady Gosden

Top-class miler and having landed the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile as a juvenile it’s fair to assume this trip might be one she will relish. As good as ever this season taking the Group 1 Jacques le Marois at Deauville and Group 1 Sun Chariot at Newmarket when she romped home. If she stays, she’s the one to beat. Just a slight worry she can sometimes miss the break.

LUMIERE ROCK (11) – Joseph O’Brien

Decent type who was third behind Blue Rose Cen in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp last month. However, in general her form is a notch or two below some of these unless fast ground improves her. She did finish second in the Ribblesdale on a fast surface when not too far behind Warm Heart and 1m 2f might be better for her.

STATE OCCASION (12) – Ralph Beckett

Terrible draw and a mountain to climb on form. The fifth in the Prix de l’Opera behind Lumiere Rock is not good enough and her other efforts back that up.

Breeders’ Cup Mile

MAWJ (6) – Saeed Bin Suroor

Likeable filly. Beat Tahiyra in the Group 1 1000 Guineas at Newmarket for a battling Classic success and then had time off before a return victory in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Keeneland. Likes to go from the front and has a good draw to do that. Was being considered for the 10f girls’ race so stamina assured and will be tough to catch.

KELINA (11) – Carlos Laffon-Parias

Four wins from nine starts and was a big-priced winner of the Group 1 Prix de la Foret when a lucky scorer from Kinross. Her previous form did not suggest that success was likely so it just depends whether she’s improving or it was a bit of a fluke. I’d expect Mawj to beat her.

MASTER OF THE SEAS (14) – Charlie Appleby

Draw is not kind but he’s a talented closer on his day. Once finished second in the 2000 Guineas behind Poetic Flare and he has plenty of North American experience winning the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile in September and then second to super talented Up To The Mark at Keeneland last time. Tactically, he can do anything, although slow starts sometimes a hindrance. Not ignored.

Breeders’ Cup Turf

AUGUSTE RODIN (5) – Aidan O’Brien

The enigmatic Derby hero. Not only the winner at Epsom of the ultimate Classic, but also last time at Leopardstown when taking the Group 1 Irish Champions Stakes. Can mix speed and stamina and has taken six of his nine starts. It’s the two flops in the King George and 2000 Guineas which are the worry. Has the perfect set up here with Broome and Bolshoi Ballet poised to set a decent gallop.

MOSTAHDAF (9) – John & Thady Gosden

Clearly very talented although it’s easy to argue he might be best at 1m 2f. Three wins this season include the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot and an all-the-way success at York in the Juddmonte International. Can race from the front or behind and if seeing out the trip will be hard to stop.

KING OF STEEL (11) – Roger Varian

Nasty draw. That said, was seen to good effect when staying on strongly to land the Champion Stakes at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. Hard to know whether he will be suited to this track as a giant horse or whether he really wants this distance. However, impossible to rule out of calculations even though I will be surprised if he scores.

ONESTO (2) – Francis Chappet

Fascinating runner. Top-class form over 1m 2f, including when second in last season’s Irish Champion Stakes behind Luxembourg. However, landed the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris over 1m 4f in 2022 and was a fast-finishing third behind Ace Impact in the Arc. I think he’s got a huge each-way chance on that performance.

BOLSHOI BALLET (4) – Aidan O’Brien

Sent off the 11-8 favourite for the 2021 Derby. Back to form last time in Saratoga when scoring in a Grade 1 over this trip in fine style from Soldier Rising. Has to improve 10lb to score here and might be one of two to make the pace for Auguste Rodin.

BROOME (7) – Aidan O’Brien

No mug but like Bolshoi Ballet may well be in here to make a strong gallop. In his time has won the Group 2 Hardwicke at Royal Ascot but has been over 2m this season and isn’t good enough to beat this lot.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

LIVE IN THE DREAM (5) – Adam West

Blinding early-paced speedball. Made all for a much-improved effort when blitzing rivals in the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York. Then got some stateside experience over a bit further when picked up late in a Grade 2 at Keeneland. If out away quickly will be hard to catch.

AESOP’S FABLES (8) – Aidan O’Brien

Not a bad horse at all and finished third behind Highfield Princess in the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp last time. Had been last in the Nunthorpe behind Live in the Dream. Probably needs to be dropped out and ridden for luck in this but if there is a burn up he has the talent to stay on well. Ground is a concern as he might prefer some juice.