Cricket World Cup: How England can avoid group-stage exit and qualify for the semi-finals in India | Cricket News

England’s Cricket World Cup hopes are hanging by a thread after a nightmare start to their title defence in India, although time still remains for them to try and make an unlikely late push for the semi-finals.

The 2019 champions have lost three of their opening four matches to sit eighth in the 10-team table on two points, with only the top four sides progressing beyond the group stage.

England were thrashed by New Zealand in their group opener, the same two sides who featured in the final four years earlier, before following a lone victory over Bangladesh by falling to a shock 69-run defeat against Afghanistan.

An embarrassing 229-run defeat against South Africa was England’s record ODI defeat by runs and leaves them on the verge of a group-stage exit, but there are still enough matches for Jos Buttler’s side to make a late bid for the last four.

What do England need to do?

The round-robin format gives England five more fixtures to accumulate points and move up the table, with victories in the lot the way that would give them the best chance of reaching the knockout stage.

Five wins would take England to 12 points, which may still not be enough depending on how other teams perform over the next couple of weeks, although there are mathematical – if highly doubtful – scenarios still where they could lose once more and still just about make it through.

There is a high possibility that net run rate could determine the final qualification spots, which is calculated by using the average runs per over scored by a team and then subtracting the average runs per over scored against them.

That metric is used when teams remain level on points at the end of the group stage, with the team holding the best net run rate in that scenario then qualifying.

England’s is in need of improvement as it currently sits at -1.247 after four matches, although more than half of the teams hold a negative run rate and one big victory could significantly change that number.

Who have England still got to play?

England face Sri Lanka on Thursday, another of the teams languishing on two points, where a victory could move them as high as fifth depending on other results over the coming days.

A third successive defeat would likely end any slim qualification hopes, given it would mean they can only earn a maximum of 10 points from the group stage, while Sunday’s clash against table-toppers and unbeaten hosts India is likely to offer an even tougher test.

India may have lost top spot by the time that game takes place, with New Zealand – two points behind and holding a better run-rate – facing Australia the previous day, although a sixth consecutive win would all-but guarantee their passage into the semi-finals.

Should England still be in the race to qualify after those two matches, then their fixture on November 4 against Australia – who currently sit in fourth place on six points and have progressed from the group stage in every Cricket World Cup since 1996 – is likely to be a must-win fixture.

England face the Netherlands in Pune on November 8, with Buttler’s side hoping to not already be eliminated when they round off their group campaign against Pakistan on November 11.

Can England be optimistic?

England have only lost four matches in the same World Cup once, their Super 8 stage exit in 2007, although lost three fixtures in five other World Cup campaigns – including two where they have reached the final.

They were beaten three times in 1992, twice in the group stage before losing to Pakistan in the final, while Eoin Morgan’s 2019 side suffered three matches ahead of them becoming world champions on home soil.

England were beaten by Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Australia on their way to finishing third in the group stage, with New Zealand taking the last spot after also losing three round-robin matches, before both teams won their semi-finals to progress to the final at Lord’s.

England’s last-gasp victory in the iconic Super Over that year will live long in the memory, although it is going to take something similarly as dramatic over the coming weeks if there is going to be any chance of a title defence.

When can I watch England?

England next face Sri Lanka in a must-win match for both sides on Thursday in Bangalore, with coverage live on Sky Sports Cricket from 9am (first ball at 9.30am). Watch every game of the 2023 ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup live on Sky Sports. You can stream the tournament on NOW.