After tipping Ben White to be flagged offside at 4/1, Jones Knows remains in form and has three best bets across the Premier League card.
How did we get on last week?
I have a strange life. It’s a life where a man being flagged offside in a football match can have a big affect on my job, my finances and my general happiness. But this is the life I’ve chosen. If bookmakers are happy to offer markets where we can find 4/1 winners like Ben White getting flagged offside then we shouldn’t feel a bit silly, should we?
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This is the modern day. Gone are the days of having one or two markets to try and win on. Yes, 99 per cent of the prop markets that are offered are tipped hugely in the favour of the bookmaker but that one per cent is where we make our moves and prove that making money long-term through betting on football is possible using shrewd decision making.
Unfortunately the 6/1 treble went down the pan, so it was a three-point haul on the weekend. And I can smell being back in the black. Let’s smash our way through it this weekend. Three bets to attack, all at juicy prices.
P+L = -0.5
1pt on Cheikhou Kouyate & Harry Toffolo both to be carded vs Tottenham (25/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
My punting instincts have taken me to the cards market where I’m interested in Nottingham Forest to keep the referee Jarred Gillett busy. Ange Postecoglou’s attacking football philosophy results in a huge number of one-on-one duels and take-on opportunities, which ultimately raises the possibility of his players being fouled by the opposition. No team have won more free-kicks this season than Spurs (224) and only Manchester City have drawn more yellow cards from the opposition than Postecoglou’s side (48).
Referee Jarred Gillett could be be busy on Friday night
Under the City Ground lights – with the supporters fully behind their under-pressure manager Steve Cooper – Forest may be tempted into a late tackle or two and will be keen on disrupting the Spurs rhythm. Cooper’s side to pick up more booking points than Spurs at Evens is a good starting point but I’m happy to back two individual players to pick up a card.
Friday 15th December 7:00pm
Kick off 8:00pm
Cheikhou Kouyate – a 7/2 shot with Sky Bet – has been booked in each of his last two starts and has picked up six yellows in just 1153 minutes of action for Forest since signing last season. Also, Harry Toffolo will be charged with keeping tabs on the returning Brennan Johnson, whose pace and trickery may lead to the aggressive full-back mistiming a challenge or two. It’s 9/2 with Sky Bet he gets carded and a whopping 25/1 if you back the double.
1pt on Pascal Gross to score or assist, to take 2+ shots & to have 1+ shot on target vs Arsenal (9/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Keep an eye on Pascal Gross getting in on the goal involvement act on Sunday.
Roberto De Zerbi has employed him in a very creative hybrid role on the left of the Brighton midfield where he is linking up with Kaoru Mitoma very intelligently and providing very dangerous attacking moments for his side. Across his last 303 minutes of Premier League action, he has registered five goal involvements (four assists, one goal) whilst posting six shots on target and creating 15 total chances for his team-mates. Phenomenal numbers from a phenomenally underrated footballer who can be backed at 9/1 with Sky Bet to score or assist, have a shot on target and register two shots.
1pt on Alex Iwobi to take 2+ shots vs Newcastle, Over 2.5 Goals in Burnley vs Everton & Brighton to score 2+ goals vs Arsenal (14/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
A fresh and firing Fulham can trouble Newcastle with Alex Iwobi at the forefront of my betting plans. In his last six starts the former Everton man has fired 17 shots and netted three goals playing in Silva’s fluid attacking foursome. That makes his short price of Evens with Sky Bet for two or more shots very value soaked.
With 160 games played this season, the total per-game goal average stands at 3.12 If this ratio remains consistent for the remainder, it’s going to soar past the previous Premier League record of goals-per-game average, which was recorded last season at 2.85. This strong evidence means we’re at the stage where if the over 2.5 goals line is the outsider, it must automatically be considered a potential play. That’s the case when Everton go to Burnley for the Sean Dyche derby with Evens available on over 2.5 goals. It’s a surprising price considering Turf Moor has seen an average of 3.75 goals per game in eight Premier League matches this season with six of those eight going over the 2.5 line.
Hopefully the treble can land in fine style on Sunday. In Brighton’s last 26 matches across all competitions against Man City, Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle, Tottenham and Arsenal, they have scored 46 goals. To average almost two goals per game in these fixtures is outrageous, therefore the total Brighton goals line is my desired angle here.
Roberto De Zerbi’s attack have also scored in their last 21 games away from home in the Premier League. They won’t be changing their risk-reward style for anyone, especially taking on a team they’ve scored eight goals against in their three fixtures with De Zerbi in charge.
The 11/4 with Sky Bet for them to score two or more goals is likely to give you a great run in what could be a fantastic spectacle of a football match.